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基于GARCH模型的网络新闻与舆情的波动性分析

余品锐 刘天桢

计算机与现代化Issue(8):134-136,140,4.
计算机与现代化Issue(8):134-136,140,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2475.2012.08.037

基于GARCH模型的网络新闻与舆情的波动性分析

Volatility Analysis of Web News Events and Public Opinion Based on GARCH Model

余品锐 1刘天桢2

作者信息

  • 1. 西南大学新闻传媒学院,重庆400715
  • 2. 武汉大学城市设计学院,湖北武汉430072
  • 折叠

摘要

Abstract

The volatility of public opinion caused by Web news has the character with heteroskedasticiry and is not to be fit by common models easily. GARCH (Generalized Auto-Regressive Conditional Heteroskedasticiry) model proposed by professor En-gle is success to analyze the volatility of stock price. This paper uses GARCH model to analyze the volatility of Web news events and public opinions by the data coming from typical news events in famous Web. The result shows that the volatility of Web news events and public opinions is suitable to GARCH model by adjusting and testing of parameters, and has a good fitness.

关键词

网络新闻/舆情/波动性/GARCH模型

Key words

Web news/ pubbc opinion/ volatibty/ GARCH model

分类

社会科学

引用本文复制引用

余品锐,刘天桢..基于GARCH模型的网络新闻与舆情的波动性分析[J].计算机与现代化,2012,(8):134-136,140,4.

基金项目

国家自然科学基金资助项目(60773210) (60773210)

计算机与现代化

OACSTPCD

1006-2475

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