摘要
Abstract
Since 1800,M≥7 strong earthquakes have showed an obvious commensurability and orderliness in Xinjiang and its neighbourhood region. The main orderly values are 30 a ×k(k = 1,2,3) ,11-12 a,41-43 a and 18-19 a. According to the information forecasting theory of WENG Wenbo and complex network technology, we try to explore the practical methods for M≥7 strong earthquake prediction with Chinese characteristics,and build the informational ordered network structure of M≥7 strong earthquakes in Xinjiang. Tn this paper,the activity rhythm of M≥7 strong earthquakes in Xinjiang during the past 200 years is revealed fully by the network structure. Based on this, Yutian M7. 3 strong earthquake is successfully predicted in 2008. At last,we present a new prediction opinion that the future M≥7 strong earthquakes will probably happen in 2014-2015,2019-2020 and 2026 in this region. The results show that strong earthquake can be predicted. This method produces satisfactory results for mid-and-long strong earthquake prediction.关键词
新疆地区/M≥7强震链/信息有序网络结构/复杂网络/强震预测Key words
Xinjiang/ M≥7 earthquake chain/ informational ordered network structure/ complex networks/ strong earthquake prediction分类
天文与地球科学
