南水北调与水利科技2012，Vol.10Issue(4)：10-13,4.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2012.04010
基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调中线工程暴雨洪水风险分析
Flood Risk Analysis in the Middle Route of South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China Based on Bayesian Network
摘要
Abstract
The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project of China is a strategic act to solve the problem of water resources shortage in the northern China. The water transfer line has a very long length and crosses a large number of rivers. In order to protect the transferring water from contamination,different hydraulic structures such as the inverted siphon and aqueduct were built to interchange with those rivers. Moreover, the area where the water transfer line passes through is an area of high-frequency rainstorms and floods which can bring significant risks to the operation of the project. In this paper, a flood risk analysis model of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project was developed based on the Bayesian network theory, and it was used to analyze the risk level for different sections of the water transfer line in this project and to simulate the real-time flood risk under different precipitations. The model can provide the decision support and technical assistance for lowering the storm-flood risk loss in the engineering projects.关键词
南水北调/暴雨洪水风险/贝叶斯网络Key words
South-to-North Water Diversion Project/storm-flood risk/Bayesian network分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
何小聪,康玲,程晓君,丁毅..基于贝叶斯网络的南水北调中线工程暴雨洪水风险分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):10-13,4.基金项目
“十一五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC56B04-1) （2009BAC56B04-1）
