南水北调与水利科技2012，Vol.10Issue(4)：53-56,115,5.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2012.04053
基于DFA的桑干河水文气象因子的趋势分析
Trend Analysis of Hydrological and Meteorological Factors in Sanggan River Based on DFA
摘要
Abstract
The hydrological and meteorological factors (temperature,precipitation and evaporation) and long-term evolution characteristics of runoff are very important for forecast and simulation of hydrology and water resources in the study area. In this article, the de-trended fluctuation analysis (DFA) method is used to analyze the meteorological factors nearly 55 years (1955—2010) in the Sanggan River and the runoff data from Shixiali hydrological station during 1955—1990. It is found that the scaling exponent of temperature, evaporation,precipitation are respectively 0. 523 9,0. 696 8,0. 723 7,and 1.201 1 all of which is within the range of 0. 5~l,but which of runoff is 1. 2011 (more than 1). The analysis indicates that the basin temperature shows a rising trend in the future, while both evaporation and precipitation show decreasing trend, among of which the precipitation will reduce more significantly. However, the future trend of runoff can not identify by the DFA method and so a further research will be needed.关键词
气象因子/径流/非趋势波动/标度指数Key words
meteorological factors/ runoff /detrended fluctuation/scaling exponent分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
门宝辉,林春坤,杨楠,孙波扬,李智飞,唐彩红..基于DFA的桑干河水文气象因子的趋势分析[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):53-56,115,5.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(11MG15) （11MG15）
水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室开放研究基金资助项目(2009B050) （2009B050）
国家自然科学基金自助项目(50809027) （50809027）
