南水北调与水利科技2012，Vol.10Issue(4)：66-69,80,5.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2012.04066
近47年来降水变化和人类活动对滦河流域年径流量的影响
Impacts of Precipitation Changes and Human Activities on Annual Runoff in the Luanhe River Basin during Recent 47 Years
摘要
Abstract
In the recent 47 years, the annual runoff of the Luanhe River Basin has declined significantly caused by the natural climate change conditions such as the decreasing of the annual precipitation, and by the human activities such as the construction of hydraulic engineering facilities and the land use changes with the reduction of forest and grassland. In this paper,the impacts of precipitation variations and human activities on the annual runoff in the Luanhe River Basin were evaluated quantitatively based on the rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model. The results showed that:① The impacts of the environmental variations on the annual runoff were lower before 1983 than those after 1983; ② During 1984 to 2006,the reduction of the average annual runoff was about 11. 97×108 m3 caused by the human activities,which accounted for 84. 42% of the total runoff reduction during this time periods whereas the reduction of the average annual runoff was about 2. 21×108 m3 caused by the precipitation variations, which accounted for 15. 58% of the total runoff reduction during this time period. Therefore,the impacts of human activities on the runoff reduction were much higher than those of precipitation variations.关键词
降水变化/人类活动/年径流量/降水—径流经验统计模型/滦河流域Key words
precipitation variation/human activities/ annual runoff/ rainfall-runoff empirical statistical model/ Luanhe River Basin分类
水利科学引用本文复制引用
袁喆,杨志勇,董国强..近47年来降水变化和人类活动对滦河流域年径流量的影响[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):66-69,80,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51021066 （）
51009148) （）
“十二五”国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAC19B03) （2012BAC19B03）
中国水利水电科学研究院科研专项(资集1206) （资集1206）
