南水北调与水利科技2012，Vol.10Issue(4)：90-96,126,8.DOI:10.3724/SP.J.1201.2012.04090
气象集合预报的研究进展
Review of Weather Ensemble Prediction
摘要
Abstract
Ensemble prediction is an important development direction of numerical prediction. Compared with the single deterministic prediction, the ensemble prediction considers the uncertainties associated with the initial conditions and models,and its results can reflect different possible weather conditions in the future and therefore the ensemble prediction can provide the information which the deterministic prediction cannot (e. g. ,the reliability of the forecast). Precipitation information is the core input of the hydrological forecast. The uncertainty of the single precipitation forecast leads to the uncertainty of the hydrological forecasting, which restricts the scientific values of the regulation of the water conservancy project However, the ensemble forecast can solve the uncertainty to some extent,and thus the weather ensemble prediction is valuable for the practical application in the hydrological field In order to help the hydrologists better apply the ensemble prediction, this paper reviews the current research status and achievements of the initial disturbance,model disturbance,and products of ensemble prediction based on the point of view of prediction system. The application of the products of precipitation ensemble prediction in the field of hydrological forecast is then analyzed Finally, the outlook of the application of ensemble forecast in the field of hydrological prediction is presented关键词
集合预报/扰动方法/集合预报产品/水文集合预报Key words
ensemble prediction/perturbation method/ensemble prediction products/hydrological ensemble prediction分类
地球科学引用本文复制引用
彭勇,王萍,徐炜,周惠成,王本德..气象集合预报的研究进展[J].南水北调与水利科技,2012,10(4):90-96,126,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109025) （51109025）
教育部博士点基金(20100041120004) （20100041120004）
水利部公益性行业专项(201001024) （201001024）
