气象2012，Vol.38Issue(8)：1012-1016,5.
陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究
Research on Index of Continuous Rainfall Days and Forecasting Method in Shaanxi Apple Maturity Period
摘要
Abstract
Using the data of 3 consecutive rainfall days and no rain days during mid-September to early Oc- tober in near 50 years （1961--2009） from 12 representative stations in major apple cultivating counties of Shaanxi, the index of continuous rainfall days （ICRD） has been designed and calculated, and is divided into the strongest, stronger, medium, weak and weaker five levels, on the basis of which, conducting the inde- pendent sample trial by using typical K-order autoregressive AR （K） forecasting model. The basic result of this research is that the ICRD could objectively reflect the intensity of continuous rainfall days in apple maturity period. In addition, the typical K-order autoregressive forecasting model has about 83% forecasts being accurate or basically accurate, indicating that the effect of this forecasting model is still good and of practical value.关键词
苹果成熟期/连阴雨指数/自回归模式/预测Key words
apple maturity period/index of continuous raiafall days (ICRD)/autoregressive model/fore- cast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘璐,马杰..陕西苹果成熟期连阴雨指数及预报方法研究[J].气象,2012,38(8):1012-1016,5.基金项目
2010年陕西省气象局科技创新基金项目“陕西省苹果果区连阴雨指数预报方法研究”（2010M-42）资助 （）
