气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(3)：506-519,14.
四个耦合模式ENSO后报试验的“春季预报障碍”
The spring prediction barrier of ENSO in retrospective prediction experiments as shown by the four coupled ocean-atmosphere models
摘要
Abstract
Based on the dynamic and statistical analysis methods, this study analyzes recent 22-year (1982 - 2003) retrospective ENSO prediction performed by the three coupled GCMs that participate in the Climate Prediction and its Application to Society (CliPAS) project and by a coupled GCM namely FGOALS-g developed at LASG/IAP. The seasonal dependence of prediction error growth for both the growing and decaying phases of El Niflo/La Nina events is presented. All the four coupled models show considerable ENSO prediction skill, and the so-called "Spring Prediction Barrier" (SPB) is also very evident for the each retrospective prediction experiment. The further analysis suggests that SPB is strongly associated with the prediction error growth during the spring, in particular, the growth rate of prediction error is the strongest during the spring for El Nino events and the growing phase of La Nina evens, but it does not depend on the season for the decaying phase of La Nina events. We have also found significant asymmetry in the growth rate of prediction error of SST anomaly between El Nino and La Nina e-vents. By analyzing the regression, we found that the air-sea interaction is the most unstable in the spring, which favors rapid growth of prediction error in this season and then results in SPB in the retrospective ENSO prediction experiments.关键词
ENSO事件回报试验/春季可预报性障碍/预报误差/海-气相互作用Key words
Retrospective ENSO prediction, Spring prediction barrier, Prediction error, Air-sea interaction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张雅乐,俞永强,段晚锁..四个耦合模式ENSO后报试验的“春季预报障碍”[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):506-519,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(40975065和40821092)、中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-QN203). （40975065和40821092）
