气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(3)：562-575,14.
利用天气雷达观测资料预报小流域流量
A new technique to predict small-scale basin discharges using weather radar observations
摘要
Abstract
The feasibility of extending the lead time with which small basin discharges can be forecasted is investigated through the combined use of the radar quantitative precipitation nowcast (QPN) and the semi-distributed hydrologic modeling TOP-MODEL (TOPography based hydrological MODEL). The study area includes the six small headwater basins (about 60-100 km2) subdivided from Foziling basin (1813 km2) in the upper reaches of the Pihe river located in Anhui Province (east China). Discharges for the events computed using radar estimates directly are assumed to be the references against which discharges driven by the nowcast precipitation fields are compared. It manifested that the accuracy of QPN is especially critical in extending the lead time for the prediction of small basin discharges; QPN of high accuracy can extend the lead time to about 0. 7 hours for the cases chosen in this study, and the extended-lead time varies with specific rainfall processes and the hydrological characteristics of each basin.关键词
天气雷达/定量降水临近预报/半分布式水文模型(TOPMODEL)/小流域/流量预报Key words
Weather radar, Quantitative precipitation nowcast, TOPMODEL, Small basin, Discharge prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张亚萍,程明虎,刘德..利用天气雷达观测资料预报小流域流量[J].气象学报,2012,70(3):562-575,14.基金项目
重庆市科技攻关计划项目(CSTC,2009AC0126)、国家自然科学基金资助项目(40575009)、国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200806002)、科技部国家软科学研究计划(2008GXS5B096). （CSTC,2009AC0126）
