水力发电学报2012，Vol.31Issue(4)：49-53,5.
CCSM3模式下汉江流域设计暴雨计算
Estimation of design storm in Han River basin with CCSM3 model
摘要
Abstract
This study applied a LARS-WG weather generator and a general circulation model CCSM3 to simulate synthetic weather data under the SRA1B, SRA2 and SRB1 scenarios from IPCC. Design storms of 100 years return period at 20 stations in the Han River basin for the period of 2020s were calculated using the P-Ⅲ curve and the L-moment approach, and the design storms of the whole basin were interpolated with Kriging method. Results show that the design storms in this basin tend to decrease from the downstream to upstream. Under SRA1B and SRA2, the largest design storms will occur at Wuhan station. Relative to the existing conditions, the largest design storms in 2020s will be greater in all the three scenarios. They will be increased by about 40mm under SRA1B and SRA2, while under SRA2 and SRB1 they will be decreased in the upstream.关键词
工程水文学/设计暴雨/LARS-WG/气候变化/CCSM3Key words
engineering hydrology/design storm/LARS-WG/climate change/CCSM3分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张徐杰,许月萍,高希超,马冲..CCSM3模式下汉江流域设计暴雨计算[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(4):49-53,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金 （）
科技部国际科技合作计划 （）
教育部博士点基金项目 （）
