水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(8)：891-897,7.
统计降尺度方法及其评价指标比较研究
Comparison of different statistical downscaling methods and evaluation indicators in climate change impact on runoff
摘要
Abstract
The application of statistical downscaling techniques and their evaluation indicators in climate change impacts studies on runoff in Hanjiang basin were compared and assessed by focusing on the key issues of climate change impacts studies on water resources currently. The NCEP/NCAR global reanalysis data and CGCM3 and HadCM3 under A2 scenario being the background of large-scale climate, large-scale climate factors were downscaled by using SSVM and SDSM statistical downscaling techniques, which were used as inputs for hydrological models. Then the simulated runoffs corresponding to various scenarios were analyzed comprehensively. The results show that for the same GCM, the simulation results of runoff vary greatly by using precipitation as the input to hydrological models through different statistical downsealing techniques. Evaluation indicators of precipitation simulation and runoff simulation results through statistical downscaling techniques demonstrate that rainfall runoff calculation cannot be fully utilized in evaluation indicator system of precipitation. While the evaluation of runoff simulation should he a key reference in turn to asses the simulation of precipitation by using the downscaling method in the climate changes impact on runoff.关键词
气候变化/统计降尺度/GCM/流域水文模型Key words
Climate change/statistical downscaling/GCM/hydrological models分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈华,郭家力,郭生练,许崇育..统计降尺度方法及其评价指标比较研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(8):891-897,7.基金项目
十一五国家科技支撑计划项目 （）
国家自然科学青年基金 （）
教育部博士点学科新教师青年基金 （）
