水利学报2012，Vol.43Issue(8)：926-934,9.
基于可变下渗容量模型和Palmer干旱指数的区域干旱化评价研究
Study on regional drought assessment based on Variable Infiltration Capacity model and Palmer Drought Severity Index
摘要
Abstract
In this study, a new climate change estimation system was created wherein the Variable Infiltration Capacity （VIC） model for hydrological processes simulation was combined with the Palmer Drought Severity Index （PDSI） for climate change estimation. The simulation results and the grid system of VIC were applied to substitute for the two-layer bucket-type model to carry out the hydrological accounting in PDSI. Moreover, the determining method of climatic characteristic, K, was optimized using a classified calibration procedure. These measures could greatly improve the physical mechanism of PDSI and expand its applica- tion range. Then, this estimation system was applied to a grid system of 293 points with a resolution of 50km-50km on the Chinese Loess Plateau. The resuhs show that the Loess Plateau exhibited an overall climatic warming-drying trend between 1970 and 2010, and this trend became increasingly significant over the past two decades. The drought frequency decreased from northwest to southeast on the Plateau, and there were some differences in the spatial distribution of drought frequency in different seasons. Due to this new climate change estimation system having a clear physical mechanism, and because of its relatively strong regional applicability, this estimation system is expected to be widely used in regional drought assessment and monitoring the spatial-temporal trends of climate change.关键词
分布式水文模型/PDSI/干旱评估/旱情监测/黄土高原/水量平衡/VIC模型Key words
distributed hydrological model/PDSI/drought estimation/drought monitoring/Loess Plateau/water balance/Variable Infiltration Capacity model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张宝庆,吴普特,赵西宁,高晓东..基于可变下渗容量模型和Palmer干旱指数的区域干旱化评价研究[J].水利学报,2012,43(8):926-934,9.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划 （）
国家自然科学基金 （）
高等学校学科创新引智计划资助 （）
陕西省青年科技新星支持项目 （）
西北农林科技大学青年学术骨干项目和基本科研业务费支助项目 （）
