生态学杂志2012，Vol.31Issue(7)：1823-1831,9.
基于Markov和CLUE-S模型的敦煌市土地利用/覆盖格局情景模拟
Scenarios simulation of land use/cover pattern in Dunhuang City, Gansu Province of Northwest China based on Markov and CLUE-S integrated model
摘要
Abstract
A Markov and CLUE-S integrated model was established to simulate the land use/cover pattern in Dunhuang City in 2007, based on the land use/cover change data in 1996 and selecting altitude, slope, distance to river, and distance to road, etc. as the driving factors. The simulation results had a high reliability, and matched well with the actual situation. In order to reveal the future changes of the land use pattern in the City, four scenarios were set to predict the land use/cover pattern in the City in 2018. The simulation results showed that whether the scenarios were of natural development-oriented or only considering ecological protection and economic development, they were only single demand consideration and could not realize sound and rapid development, being of unsustainable development model. However, the comprehensive development-oriented scenario overcame the shortcomings of the above scenarios, and would be an ideal model of region development, which comprehensively considered the needs of ecological environment restoration and economic development.关键词
土地利用/覆盖格局/情景模拟/集成模型/敦煌市Key words
land use/cover pattern/ scenarios simulation/ integrated model/ Dunhuang City.分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
马利邦,牛叔文,杨丽娜..基于Markov和CLUE-S模型的敦煌市土地利用/覆盖格局情景模拟[J].生态学杂志,2012,31(7):1823-1831,9.基金项目
甘肃省发改委重大项目(GV2007-08)资助. （GV2007-08）
