山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）2012，Vol.32Issue(1)：53-57,5.
基于Markov的山西岔口小流域土地利用变化预测
Prediction of the Land Use/Cover Change of Shanxi Cha-kou Small Watershed by Means of Markov Model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of the vector maps of the current land use of Cha-kou small watershed in Shanxi in 2008 and 2010,the land cover change data was extracted and analysed to construct the Markov model. With the transition probability matrix.we predicted the land use/cover change of Cha-kou small watershed in 2020. The results indicated that, according to the current development trend, the area of slope farmland and bare land would continue to reduce to 1348. 81 hmz and 763. 54 hm2. The area of high forest and terraced fields would be gradually increased to 3985. 74 hm2 and 1339. 65 hmz. The projects of farmland improvement and returning the grain plots to forestry would make substantial achievements. The ecological environment of the watershed would gradually get recovered and rebuilt, which would reduce soil and water loss.关键词
岔口小流域/LUCC/马尔科夫模型/预测Key words
Cha-kou small watershed/ LUCC/ Markov model/ Prediction分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘慧璋,郭青霞,王曰鑫,刘超,徐丹丹,芦三矿生..基于Markov的山西岔口小流域土地利用变化预测[J].山西农业大学学报（自然科学版）,2012,32(1):53-57,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(41071345) （41071345）
