环境与职业医学2012，Vol.29Issue(9)：539-542,4.
季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型在上海市道路交通伤害预测中的应用
Application of Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model to Road Traffic Injury Prediction in Shanghai
喻彦 1侯心一 2苏慧佳 1任宏3
作者信息
- 1. 上海市疾病预防控制中心伤害防治科,上海200336
- 2. 上海市公安局交通警察大队事故防范科,上海200070
- 3. 上海市疾病预防控制中心急性传染病防治科,上海200336
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
[ Objective ] To explore the feasibility of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model in predicting road traffic injury, and to provide reference for road traffic injury trends in Shanghai. [ Methods ] A SARIMA model was presented to fit the seasonal road traffic mortality data of Shanghai (2000-2009) via EVIEWS software, and estimated mortalities of 2010 were verified with the actual data. [ Results ] The seasonal component was statistically significant in Shanghai's road traffic mortality data. A decreasing trend was observed in the trend component of the model. SARIMA (2, 1, 0) (0, 1, 1)4 was the best fitting model among various candidate models. The predicted seasonal mortalities of 2010 were 1.49/105, 1.74/105, 1.93/105, and 2.06/105 respectively. The actual values were all in the prediction intervals, and the residuals were considered as white noise serial. The verification with actual data passed our test. [ Conclusion ] A SARIMA model can be used in accurate trends prediction of road traffic injury and therefore can provide evidences for road traffic injury intervention.关键词
道路交通伤害/季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型/季节性/时间序列Key words
road traffic injury/ seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average model/ seasonal/ time series分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
喻彦,侯心一,苏慧佳,任宏..季节性差分自回归滑动平均模型在上海市道路交通伤害预测中的应用[J].环境与职业医学,2012,29(9):539-542,4.
