农业工程学报2012，Vol.28Issue(16)：208-216,后插8,10.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-6819.2012.16.033
基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO模型的土地利用变化及驱动力分析
Land use change in China and analysis of its driving forces using CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO model
摘要
Abstract
In order to analyze the driving mechanism and to predict land use change of China in the future, CLUE-S(the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent) and Dinamica EGO(environment for geoprocessing objects) model were used to simulate land use change in China from 2000 to 2020 based on the land use data in 2000 and 2005 from Data Center for Resources and Environmental Sciences Chinese Academy of Sciences (RESDC). With Logistic regression and Bayesian estimation, land use suitability and spatial characters of driving factors of land use change from 2000 to 2005 in China were analyzed. The simulation results in 2005 indicated that, the predictions of LUCC (land use change in China) with CLUE-S and Dinamica EGO matched broadly with actual situation and CLUE-S was better than Dinamica EGO model in overall accuracy. However, the Markov process in Dinamica EGO could precisely predict the amount of land use change and the spatial pattern was consistent with empirical result. The simulation results of land use in 2020 showed that areas of farmland, forest, water and construction land would increase, while grassland would decrease largely. Unused land would increase with CLUE-S model but decrease with Dinamica EGO model. This article serves as the scientific foundation for land resource plan and farmland protection policy in China.关键词
土地利用/模型/预测/驱动力/中国/面向地理过程动态环境模型/区域土地利用变化与影响模型Key words
land use, models, forecasting, driving force, China, Dinamica EGO(environment for geoprocessing objects), CLUE-S(the conversion of land use and its effects at small regional extent)分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
高志强,易维..基于CLUE-S和Dinamica EGO模型的土地利用变化及驱动力分析[J].农业工程学报,2012,28(16):208-216,后插8,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41171334,41071278) （41171334,41071278）
