气象2012，Vol.38Issue(10)：1238-1246,9.
2011年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定
Error Analysis on the Forecasts of Tropical Cyclones over Western North Pacific in 2011
摘要
Abstract
Operational positioning and forecast errors of tropical cyclones (TC) over the western North Pacific in 2011 are evaluated. The evaluations are performed on the TC's positioning, the deterministic track and intensity forecasts, and the track ensemble prediction. The results show that the TC average operational positioning error is 24.9 km. The average errors of domestic integrated track forecast in 24 h, 48 h and 72 h are 112.6 km, 209.7 km and 333.6 km, respectively, which are 121.4 km, 220.1 km and 380.5 km for numerical weather prediction (NWP) models, and better than those of 2010. However, the results also show that the NWP intensity forecasting capability is still weaker than obiective methods. ECMWF ensemble prediction system (EPS) shows the best performance among the 7 EPS methods, followed by NCEP EPS, occasionally, these two systems have near and even beyond subjective track forecast level. CMA-GEFS EPS was located at the middle level.关键词
热带气旋/预报/集合预报系统/误差分析Key words
tropical cyclones/forecast/ensemble prediction system (EPS)/error analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈国民,汤杰,曾智华..2011年西北太平洋热带气旋预报精度评定[J].气象,2012,38(10):1238-1246,9.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划（973计划） （）
国家自然科学基金项目 （）
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY201006008）和上海市气象局科技开发项目（QM201202）共同资助 致谢：余晖研究员,张维、陈佩燕、占瑞芬副研究员为本文提供部分资料和计算帮助,特此感谢! （）
