气象科学2011，Vol.31Issue(z1)：139-144,6.
MEOFIS平台的苏州本地化释用和气温检验
Localized explanation and application of the MEOFIS platform in Suzhou and the quality of temperature forecast
摘要
Abstract
Based on the developmental requirements of the modern weather services, MEOFIS (Meteorological Element Objective Forecast Integrated System) Platform is introduced and run automatically in Suzhou Meteorological Bureau. Statistical dynamical forecasting method is utilized to build statistical forecast equations between T639's output datum and Suzhou's local historical observational datum. The refined forecasting elements are obtained with time resolution reaching 3 h, and spatial resolution approaching township level. Objective verification of the forecast temperature in July 2011 shows that the accuracy of daily minimum temperature within 2℃ in 24 h is 90. 3% , and daily maximum temperature is 74. 2% , while temperature in every 3 h is 82. 7% . Therefore, the objective forecast has a guiding significance in the daily weather forecast. The forecast error analysis implies that error goes up if the maximum ( minimum) temperatures of the two successive days are varying violently. Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) is utilized to filter the 3 h temperature. Result shows that the forecast temperature errors from MEOFIS still have the remarkable periods related to synoptic situation, and filtering could still improve the accuracy of temperature forecast.关键词
MEOFIS平台/MOS方法/集合经验正交分解Key words
MEOFIS platform/ MOS/ EEMD分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
赵云武,祁杰,杨福兴,王吉滨,唐丽娟..MEOFIS平台的苏州本地化释用和气温检验[J].气象科学,2011,31(z1):139-144,6.基金项目
苏州市气象局自立科研课题项目(sz201103) （sz201103）
