气象学报2012，Vol.70Issue(4)：779-788,10.
厄尔尼诺衰减年东亚夏季大气环流和降水异常的耦合模式后报试验
Retrospective prediction in a coupled model over East Asia during El Ni(n)o decaying phase
摘要
Abstract
The present work evaluates the simulations of rainfall responses over East Asia to the El Nino in a coupled model (FGOALS) and discusses the possible effect of El Nino on the East Asian rainfall during its decaying summer in terms of the seasonal forecast. The results show that the FGOALS model can reasonably simulate the El Nino-related climate anomalies during the decaying summer, such as the negative sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) in the western North Pacific (WNP), the anomalous anticyclone over the WNP, and increasing rainfall over the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River. For 1 to 3 leading season forecast simulation, the model can roughly simulate the evolution of climate anomalies. However, the longer the predicting time is, the weaker the SSTA and anomalous anticyclone over the WNP are, which tends to cause the decreased rainfall over East Asia. The simulations reveal that the SSTA associated with El Nino can remain for about three seasons. This provides a solid basis for the rainfall forecast over East Asia. In addition, it is suggested that the error of simulated East Asian rainfall may be related to the departure of ENSO simulation due to model bias.关键词
耦合模式/季节预测/东亚夏季降水/厄尔尼诺Key words
Coupled model, Climate prediction, East Asian summer rainfall, El Nino分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
智海,俞永强,严厉,张文君,李志强..厄尔尼诺衰减年东亚夏季大气环流和降水异常的耦合模式后报试验[J].气象学报,2012,70(4):779-788,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB950502)、国家自然科学基金项目(40975065)、中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室(LASG) 2011年开放课题、江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)、国家公益性行业(气象)专项(GYHY201006020). （973计划）
