水力发电学报2012，Vol.31Issue(5)：23-28,6.
调水工程水源区需水长系列模拟与供水风险分析
Water demand simulation and water shortage risk analysis for sources area of water diversion engineering
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at problems such as insufficient data and existence of correlated adjacent months, a monthly water demand simulation model was put forth in this work to consider the correlationship, by combining techniques of Cholesky factorization, Box-Cox transfer and Monte-Carlo simulation. A water shortage risk analysis model for water sources area that couples a water demand and runoff simulation model with a reservoir regulation model, was developed. These two models have been verified through an application to the sources area of the middle route of south-north water transfer project. Water-supply risks for scenarios with different diversion flows and compensation discharges of these areas were calculated and analyzed.关键词
水资源/水资源风险分析/供水/水源区/模拟Key words
water resources/water resources risk analysis/water supply/sources area/simulation分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
顾文权,邵东国,蒋玉芳..调水工程水源区需水长系列模拟与供水风险分析[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(5):23-28,6.基金项目
国家教育部博士学科点专项科研基金 （）
水利部公益性行业科研专项项目 （）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助 （）
