水力发电学报2012，Vol.31Issue(5)：29-34,6.
基于模糊时序有效聚类的太湖流域汛期分期研究
Novel flood season division method based on fuzzy time series-effective cluster and its application to Taihu lake basin
摘要
Abstract
Seasonal distribution of precipitation in eastern China affected by monsoon climate is uneven. Formulation of operation scheme of flood level control according to seasonal flood variations is important to flood resources utilization aiming at easing water shortages and improving water environment. Division of basin flood season, a muhi-dimensional time series clustering problem with unknown number of cluster, is the premise of designing stage flood and stage flood control level of large water project. Thus, cluster methods are suitable to handle multi-dimensionality, time series and clustering validity, but no one meets all these needs currently so far. This paper puts forward a dynamic fuzzy C-means clustering method and clustering validity function-based time series, based on Xie's previous studies. There remains, however, a complex nonlinear optimal problem in this dynamic method, making it very difficult to solve with regular optimal method. To solve such problem, this paper adopts a real coding-based accelerating genetic algorithm, a very effective algorithm that can overcome the difficulty of initial value sensitivity in regular iterative method for optimization of fuzzy C-means clustering. Thus, by coupling all the methods and techniques above, we establish a new method for flood division, namely dividing flood season method based on fuzzy time series-effective cluster. We also present a set of self-contained steps of model development and an example application to the Taihu basin. This application shows that the new method is very effective and that the dividing scheme so obtained is reasonable.关键词
洪水资源利用/汛期分期/模糊/C-均值聚类/智能计算/太湖流域Key words
flood resources utilization/division of flood season/fuzzy C-means cluster/intelligencecomputation/Taihu lake basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王宗志,王银堂,吴浩云,崔婷婷,徐洪,张怡..基于模糊时序有效聚类的太湖流域汛期分期研究[J].水力发电学报,2012,31(5):29-34,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金 （）
水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目 （）
