水利水电技术2012，Vol.43Issue(9)：8-11,29,5.
孟津县历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测
Analysis on historical weather and prediction of future climate change for Mengjin County
摘要
Abstract
Based on the weather data of 1961 ~2008 from Mengjin Meteorologic Station compiled by China Meteorological Data Sharing Service System and the Global Climate Raster Dataset of 1950 -2099 supplied by IPCC Data Distribution Centre, the feature and trend of the climate change in the past 48 years of Mengjin County are studied and analyzed in detail, and then the future climate change therein is predicted as well. The result shows that the annual precipitation before 1984 is a period with a little bit more precipitation and then is unevenly decreased after that, furthermore, shows an obvious decreasing trend without any evidence of recovery. In general, the climate change in Mengjin County shows a rising tendency; of which the main reason is the significant rising of the minimum temperature therein. Under the future climate circumstances, the precipitation and the mean temperature in Menhjin County are to be increased to a certain extent and its change tendency is just coincided with the result from the analysis made on the future climate change of China as well.关键词
孟津县/气候变化/累积距平/HadCM3模型(全球气候模型)Key words
Mengjin County/ climate change/ cumulative departure/ Global Climate Model ( HadCM3)分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
鲁向晖,刘佳丽..孟津县历史气象分析及未来气候变化预测[J].水利水电技术,2012,43(9):8-11,29,5.基金项目
江西省自然科学基金(2010GZC0184) （2010GZC0184）
Challenge Program on Water&Food "Conservation agriculture for the dryland areas of Yellow River Basin"(CN228). （CN228）
