中国人口·资源与环境2012，Vol.22Issue(10)：137-143,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.10.020
中国能源安全分析:基于最优消费路径视角
An Analysis of Energy Security for China: from the Perspective of Optimal Consumption Time Path
摘要
Abstract
From the beginning of the new century, China's energy security situation has become increasingly serious. One prominent problem is the growing gap between soaring energy demand and relatively limited growth of energy supply. On the basis of the concrete characteristics of energy demand and supply in China, we developed a theoretical framework to analyze the causes of current energy consumption gap and determined the optimal energy consumption time path accordingly. The basic model was also extended to take account of the possibilities of energy import, development of new and renewable energy, and promoting energy efficiency. The main problems that China's economy faces currently, including the growing energy gap, are caused by the deviation from the optimal consumption time path. As a result, in order to efficiently reduce and finally eliminate the energy consumption gap, the actual energy consumption should follow exactly the optimal consumption path determined by the model, and meanwhiles the Chinese government should try every effort to raise energy import, accelerate the development of new and renewable energy industry, and promote energy efficiency as well.关键词
能源缺口/能源安全/新能源/能源供求Key words
energy consumption gap/ energy security/ new energy/ energy supply and consumption分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张生玲,郝宇..中国能源安全分析:基于最优消费路径视角[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(10):137-143,7.基金项目
北京师范大学985基地项目和中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助重大项目(编号:2009AC-6). （编号:2009AC-6）
