灾害学2012，Vol.27Issue(4)：80-84,5.
1368-1948年山西霜雪灾害的特征与周期规律研究
Characteristics and Periodic Regularity of Frost and Snow Disaster in Shanxi Province During 1368 to 1948
摘要
Abstract
Based on collection, arrangement and mathematical analysis on historical documents and materials from 1368 to 1948 in Shanxi province, grades, stages, periods and their causes of frost and snow disasters in the area are researched. During this period 419 disasters had happened, the disaster grades are mild, moderate and severe, and the disaster occurrence probabilities are 106, 228 and 85 times. Disaster changes can be divided into four stages. The first stage is from 1368 to 1579, the second stage is from 1580 to 1699, the third stage is from 1700 to 1819 and the fourth stage is from 1820 to 1948. The first and third stages are the ones that the disasters happened occasionally, and most of them are mild and moderate ones. The second and forth stages are the ones that the disasters happened frequently, and most of them are moderate and the most serious. According to wavelet analysis, the disasters are mainly of 4 obvious periods as 10-13 years, about 20 years, 45 ~50 years and about 120 years. Sharp temperature dropping below 0℃ , which is caused by snowfall or cold current, is the main inducement of frost and snow disaster in Shanxi province. Six cold climate events happened in Shanxi province from 1368 to 1948, and they respectively happened from 1578 to 1588, 1591 to 1607, 1631 to 1642, 1669 to 1672, 1690 to 1699 and 1830 to 1836. There were three unusually cold disaster years in 1653, 1892 and 1929.关键词
霜雪灾害/1368-1948年/灾害等级/周期规律/寒冷气候事件/山西Key words
frost and snow disaster/ from 1368 to 1948/ the grade of disaster/ periodic law/ cold climate events/ Shanxi province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
孟万忠,刘晓峰..1368-1948年山西霜雪灾害的特征与周期规律研究[J].灾害学,2012,27(4):80-84,5.基金项目
中国博士后科学基金面上资助项目 （）
国家自然科学基金项目(41071335) （41071335）
山西省高等学校哲学社会科学研究项目(2010320,2011325) （2010320,2011325）
