地震学报2012，Vol.34Issue(5)：689-697,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.0253-3782.2012.05.010
水库诱发地震震级预测的统计研究
A statistical study on the prediction of maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes
摘要
Abstract
Based on the collected data of 102 global reservoir-induced earthquakes and by using the method of membership function analysis, we comprehensively analyzed the relationship between reservoir-induced earthquakes and basic properties of the reservoir, lithology of the epicentral region, basic seismic intensity in the reservoir region and fault types of the epicentral region. From a statistical point of view, a method of predicting the maximum magnitude of reservoir-induced earthquakes is proposed. Through the Fisher discriminant analysis and a retrospective test, the relative error of the predicted magnitude and correct recognition ratio are given. The overall prediction result is rather satisfactory and can provide a statistical basis for reservoir seismic fortification and judgment of the possible maximum earthquake magnitude in the future.关键词
水库诱发地震/震级预测/隶属函数/费舍尔判别Key words
reservoir-induced seismicity/ magnitude prediction/ membership function/ Fisher discriminant分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王博,蒋海昆,宋金..水库诱发地震震级预测的统计研究[J].地震学报,2012,34(5):689-697,9.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划“水库地震预测方法研究”课题(2008BAC38B03)资助. （2008BAC38B03）
