东南大学学报（自然科学版）2012，Vol.42Issue(z1)：78-81,4.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-0505.2012.S1.017
基于混沌不稳定周期方法的风速时间序列预测
Prediction of wind speed series based on chaotic unstable period
摘要
Abstract
Combining the phase space reconstruction theory, a novel prediction method based on the unstable period is proposed to improve the prediction performance of wind speed series with chaotic characteristics. The delay time of the known time series is determined by the mutual information method. The unstable period optimization function is constructed according to the contact ratio of the orbit of time series. The embedding dimension and the best unstable period are determined by optimizing the unstable period function. According to the delay time and the embedding dimension, the wind speed series are reconstructed by the phase space reconstruction theory. The future data is predicted by the points near the former unstable period. Simulation results show that the method can enhance the prediction performance of wind speed series, and can also be applied to multi-step prediction of wind speed series. Compared with the traditional prediction methods, the prediction performance of the method is more stable when prediction step is increased.关键词
风速预测/时间序列/混沌特性/不稳定周期Key words
wind speed prediction/time series/chaotic characteristic/unstable period分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
刘新婷,修春波,张欣,于婷婷..基于混沌不稳定周期方法的风速时间序列预测[J].东南大学学报（自然科学版）,2012,42(z1):78-81,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(61203302). （61203302）
