电网技术2012，Vol.36Issue(10)：125-130,6.
电力系统仿真不确定度评估中拟合多项式阶次的确定
Order Selection for Polynomial Fitting in Uncertainty Evaluation of Power System Simulation by Probability Collocation Method
摘要
Abstract
To evaluate the uncertainty of power system simulation, probability collocation method (PCM) is used to construct the polynomial relation between the simulation result and uncertain parameters. However, the same order is used currently for all parameters, which will result in exponential growth for computational complexity, so the application of PCM is restricted. In fact, orders may be different, thus it is necessary to find proper order for each uncertain parameter. If the order selection were performed by coupling all parameters together, it would be hard to solve such a combination problem. Supposing that the order of a parameter was independent of the values of other parameters, a method to efficiently find the order of each parameter for multi-parameter PCM was proposed, namely the order selection of each parameter was performed after the decoupling, and then the obtained order was applied to the parameters corresponding to multi-parameter PCM. Besides, utilizing the feature that the expected value of high-order polynomial could be accurately acquired by a relatively low-order one, in the occasion that there were too many uncertain parameters that it was impossible to acquire accurate high-order polynomials, it was proposed the order of a parameter could be selected according to the difference of the expected values between two consecutive order fitting polynomials, thus on the premise of ensuring the equivalence of expected values, the total order numbers of fitting polynomials and the needed simulation times could be greatly reduced. The effectiveness of the proposed method was verified by both results of theoretical analysis and simulation.关键词
概率分配法/不确定性评估/电力系统/动态仿真Key words
probabilistic collocation method/ uncertainty analysis/ power system/ dynamic simulation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
伍双喜,吴文传,张伯明,孙宏斌..电力系统仿真不确定度评估中拟合多项式阶次的确定[J].电网技术,2012,36(10):125-130,6.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划项目(973 项目)(2004CB217904) （973 项目）
国家电网公司科技项目(20092001510). （20092001510）
