干旱地区农业研究2012，Vol.35Issue(5)：25-29,5.
黑龙江省气候变化及其对玉米生产潜力的影响
Climate change and its impact on maize potential productivity of Heilongjiang Province in China
摘要
Abstract
Climate change affects regional crop production. So far,a quantitative assessment of the long time series impacts remains difficult. Heilongjiang Province is one of the most important grain-producing provinces in China,and its maize production plays an important role in local and national food security. At the same time,Heilongjiang Province has experienced substantial climate change during the last 30 years (1980-2009) . Based on 30 years observational data from thirty meteorological stations,this study firstly analyzed the characteristics of climate changes in the province,and then calculated the light-temperature potential productivity (LTPP) and climatic potential productivity (CPP) by using the crop growth model of FAO AEZ-project. Furthermore,this paper assessed the impacts of climate change on maize potential productivity,and also analyzed the exploitation space of maize productivity. The results showed that: (1) over 30 years,the climate has transitioned from a warm-wet to a warm-dry pattern in Heilongjiang Province,and the climatic tendency of mean temperature and precipitation are 0.55℃ and - 23 mm per decade,respectively. (2) The LTPP and CPP of maize were between 10 583 ~ 14 561 kg/hm2 and 5 426 -10 567 kg/hm2 respectively in the last 30 years. The in-creasing of mean temperature and decreasing of precipitation led to a notable increased LTPP and decreased CPP. (3) The change trends of the exploitation space based on LTPP and CPP over 30 years were both decreasing. The actual yield of maize still has a 66 % and 51 % gap to the LTPP and CPP respectively. That is to say,the exploitation space of maize yield increasing is large relatively.关键词
气候变化/黑龙江省/气候生产潜力/玉米Key words
climate change/light-temperature potential productivity/climatic potential productivity/maize分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王秀芬,杨艳昭,尤飞..黑龙江省气候变化及其对玉米生产潜力的影响[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,35(5):25-29,5.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2010CB951502) （973计划）
