干旱地区农业研究2012，Vol.35Issue(5)：210-215,6.
基于EPIC模型的中国典型小麦干旱致灾风险评价
Assessment on drought risk of typical wheat in China based on EPIC model
摘要
Abstract
With global climate change and global warming,the frequency and intensity of drought event and loss is increased. This paper simulated the growth process of wheat in China from 1966 to 2005 using EPIC ( Environmental Policy Integrated Climate) crop model,developed the drought hazard intensity index based on crop water stress index and quantitatively analyzed the tempo-spatial distribution regularity of wheat drought hazard intensity and drought hazard risk. The results is as follows: Fistly,drought hazard intensity of wheat caused by drought was decreased from the arid region of northwest China to the humid region of southeast China,and drought hazard intensity of spring wheat area was higher than winter wheat area; Secondly,the annual variation and intensity of wheat drought hazard intensity had an abnormal high-value zone,and its space range agreed with the Fanning-Pastoral Zone and ecological vulnerable zone of China,which is the high-value zone of the wheat drought hazard risk; Finally,in 1966 to 2005,drought hazard intensity of spring wheat area was decreased,while drought intensity of the winter wheat area was increased,and the North winter wheat area and the winter wheat area of Huang-River and Huai-River demonstrated a distinguished uptrend in all wheat distribution area.关键词
干旱致灾风险/EPIC模型/小麦/中国Key words
drought hazard risk/EPIC model/wheat/China分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
王志强,何飞,栗健,廖永丰..基于EPIC模型的中国典型小麦干旱致灾风险评价[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,35(5):210-215,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助(41001059) （41001059）
