管理工程学报2012，Vol.26Issue(4)：84-89,6.
中国通货膨胀与RPV——基于理论模型的实证研究
An Empirical Study Based on Theoretical Models of Inflation and RPV in China
摘要
Abstract
Previous study shows that inflation has impact on relative price variability (RPV ) . Economic theories emphasize the revenue of price stability and the welfare cost of inflation. Thus, it's important to understand the market reaction to inflation shock and determine the micro basis of macroeconomic volatility in order to investigate the relationship between inflation and RPV. The menu cost model shows that RPV is positively correlated with the expected inflation. Signal extraction models show that RPV is positively correlated with unexpected inflation and inflation uncertainty. To understand whether we can use these theoretical models to explain the relationship between inflation and RPV in China, we first build a theoretical model based on previous theories and compute the inflation index and RPV using the monthly data from January 2001 to October 2010. We further categorize inflation into expected inflation, unexpected inflation and inflation uncertainty. Lastly, we empirically test the nonlinear relationship between inflation and RPV. The empirical conclusions are as follows. Firstly, the nonlinear relationship between inflation and RPV is present in China. The relationship is exponential and different from U type in foreign studies. This finding indicates that an asymmetric relationship exists because the impact of price rises on RPV is different from that of price fall. Thus, we should adopt the mild tightening policy to control inflation and take positive expansion policy to manage deflation in order to stabilize price. The impact of expected inflation and inflation uncertainty on RPV is positive, meaning that RPV will increase with inflation expectation and economic or financial crises and natural calamities in domestic and overseas on economy can have impact on inflation uncertainty. The impact of unexpected inflation on RPV is negative indicating that when the unexpected inflation is resulted from the sudden impact of demand and supply on economy, single firm will fail to adjust the price of products and services. Although the RPV will decrease in short run, in the long term we need government's intervention to formulate relevant policy to stabilize prices and ensure stable economic development. Secondly, we can't explain the relationship between inflation and RPV by only one kind of theory. The relationship may change in different inflation periods, and we also can't explain the change perfectly with three models combined. Some researchers show that the relationship between inflation and RPV is only an artifact from time sequence data test. Their studies don't have underlying economic causality despite of their statistical results. We can still provide some references for relevant national authorities to formulate fiscal and monetary policy according to our empirical research results. Lastly, in order to measure the impact of inflation resulted from all kinds of goods and service price changes on RPV it is more appropriate for us to choose the weighted RPV estimation method. In addition, the data used to compute RPV and inflation level are collected from 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions. As a result, RPV and inflation may be different from people's real life experience. Chinese government may want to formulate a stabilized price policy by improving the timeliness, dependability and accuracy of the survey results.关键词
RPV/预期通货膨胀/非预期通货膨胀/通货膨胀不确定性Key words
RPV/ expected inflation/ unexpected inflation/ inflation uncertainty分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈仲常,聂飒..中国通货膨胀与RPV——基于理论模型的实证研究[J].管理工程学报,2012,26(4):84-89,6.基金项目
国家社会科学基金资助项目(07BJY110) （07BJY110）
