管理工程学报2012，Vol.26Issue(4)：90-99,10.
我国交通运输业能源强度影响因素研究
What is Keeping Energy Intensity in China's Transportation Sector from Deterioration?
摘要
Abstract
The accelerating urbanization process in China has led to an increased demand of energy use in the transportation sector, especially for the consumption of oil products. Compared with other sectors, the growth rate of energy use in the transportation sector has become the highest, thus challenging the task of energy consumption reduction in this sector, as set by the national government. The nature of the transportation sector is unique because of its supporting role and leading role for other sectors. Effective control of energy consumption by the transportation sector can lay foundation for other sectors, resulting in more and more energy input into the transportation sector to meet the increased demand of passengers and freight for energy consumption. In order to realize the national energy consumption reduction target, increasing energy efficiency in the transportation sector is critical. The energy intensity indicator is measured by energy consumption per product, not per GDP. This paper combines index decomposition method with econometrics model to analyze the influencing factors of energy intensity of Chinese transportation sector from year 1985 to 2008. The two index decomposition methods used in this study are LMDI and Refined Laspeyres. The econometrics model Vector Auto-regression does not require theoretical assumptions among variables and is effective to explain relations among multi-variables. Firstly, the authors explain and measure all the data used in this paper. The existing energy statistics fails to provide data on the energy use of the transportation sector and that of each transportation mode. The authors make use of data about energy consumption per product to calculate the actual energy use of each transportation mode, and the energy intensity of each transportation mode. Secondly, based on the result of index decomposition the authors examine the influence of internal structure factor and efficiency factor on the total transportation energy intensity turbulence. This study also finds that the efficiency factor has a higher influence than the internal structure factor. Specifically speaking, the efficiency of air-flight and road transportation dominates the change of total energy intensity in this sector. External factors has also been analyzed using VAR model based on the assumption that more investment on transportation infrastructure would enhance energy efficiency and urbanization process and energy price fail to do the same. Finally, the government should accelerate the infrastructure construction like road pavement in both rural and urban areas, and adjust the structure of transportation mode to be more energy efficient at the same time. The extensive urbanization development should be checked, and the energy should be priced based on market supply and demand. Most importantly, the scientific and technological innovation should be encouraged.关键词
交通运输/能源强度/指数分解/VAR模型Key words
transport sector/ energy intensity/ index decomposition/ VAR model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
呙小明,张宗益..我国交通运输业能源强度影响因素研究[J].管理工程学报,2012,26(4):90-99,10.基金项目
科学部主任基金资助项目(70941029) （70941029）
