农业现代化研究2012，Vol.33Issue(6)：673-677,5.
中国粮食生产的区域格局变化研究——基于1998-2010年的数据实证分析
Spatio-temporal Analysis of Grain Production at Different Levels in China——Based on Statistical Data From 1998 to 2010
摘要
Abstract
Based on GIS and spatial analysis, this paper systematically analyzed the overall trend and regional patterns of grain production from 1998 to 2010. The results showed that: (1) The amount of grain production increased by 30 million ton from 1998 to 2010, absolute difference has been expanding fluctuate while per capita grain possession at county level in China showed a significantly trend of positive spatial correlation. Counties with higher grain production were concentrating in Northeast Plain, Huang-huai-hai Plain, Chengdu Plain, Jianghan Plain and etc; while counties with lower grain production were clustering in the west of "Hu Huanyong Line". (2) At provincial level and county level, the gravity centers of China's grain production moved to northern while the gravity centers of population distribution moved to southern. The situation of sending grains from the Northern to the Southern will be continued and inconsistency of regional grain supply and demand will be aggravated. (3)Categorized by the level of county grain production in 1998, per capita grain possession in 1998 and increase of per capita grain possession, counties were divided into 6 growth types of grain production, and more attention should be paid to the type that with higher grain production and lower net-income. It is very important to realize a mechanism and policy innovation for guaranteeing national food security.关键词
中国/粮食总产量/人均粮食占有量/重心模型/空间自相关/时空动态Key words
China/grain production/per capita grain possession/gravity center model/spatial autocorrelation/spatial-temporal change分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘玉,王国刚,高秉博,周艳兵..中国粮食生产的区域格局变化研究——基于1998-2010年的数据实证分析[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(6):673-677,5.基金项目
中国科学院区域可持续发展分析与模拟重点实验室2012年度开放基金资助课题 （）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"中国城乡发展转型的资源环境效应及其优化调控研究:以环渤海地区为例"(编号:41130748) （编号:41130748）
国家自然科学基金重点项目"城乡发展转型中乡村地域功能演化过程及其动力机制研究——以北京市为例"(编号:41201173). （编号:41201173）
