农业现代化研究2012，Vol.33Issue(6)：678-681,4.
中国东北粮食安全评价及政策模拟
The Assessment and Policy Simulation of Grain Security of Northeast China
摘要
Abstract
This paper aims to assess grain production capacity of Northeast China and illustrate its capability to ensure national grain security being major grain production area. Through the researches of Northeast China on grain supply, grain structure and pressure to cultivated land, the paper concludes that", (1) the capability to safeguard national grain security has been enhanced and potential to increasing grain production is larger; (2) the planting structure face adjustment pressure from view of grain consumption structure; (3) the minimum area per capita of cultivated land and cropland pressure index has decreased 50 percent during the last 25 years; and (4) the cropland resource can effectively safeguard national grain security under the condition of grain yield per capita nowadays. Moreover, using system dynamics model, the paper simulates the grain production trend from 2010 to 2030 under different scenario, and provides some suggestions on the total and structural grain security according to the simulations' results.关键词
粮食安全/情景模拟/耕地压力/SD模型/东北地区Key words
grain security/scenario simulation/cropland pressure/system dynamics/northeast China分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
何秀丽,刘文新..中国东北粮食安全评价及政策模拟[J].农业现代化研究,2012,33(6):678-681,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(编号:41001076、41071108) （编号:41001076、41071108）
中科院知识创新工程重要方向项目"东北粮食主产区粮食安全情景模拟实验研究" （）
中国科学院重点部署项目(编号:KZZD-EW-06-03). （编号:KZZD-EW-06-03）
