气候变化研究进展2012，Vol.8Issue(5)：342-349,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.05.005
21世纪天山南坡台兰河流域径流变化情景预估
Estimation of Tailan River Discharge in the Tianshan Mountains in the 21st Century
摘要
Abstract
The impact of climate change on local discharge is investigated in a glacierized high mountain catchment — the Tailan River basin in Tianshan Mountain region. Based on the hydrological and meteorological records at Tailan hydrologic station during 2003—2005, the optimum parameters in HBV model are obtained. Tailan River discharge is projected in the middle (2041 - 2060) and the end (2081 -2100) of the 21 st century, based on downscaling of RegCM3 under SRES A1B scenario and three scales of deglaciation. The results show that surface air temperature will significantly increase and there is no obvious change in precipitation in Tailan River basin in the two future periods. Three scenarios of glacier shrinkages are proposed at 15%, 20% and 25% in the middle, and 20%, 30%, 40% in the end of the 21 st century, respectively. The discharge in Tailan River basin will increase under the glacier shrinkages, relative to the base period (1981-2000). In detail, the minimum increase in discharge will arrive at 17.3% and 18.6% in the middle and the end of the century, respectively. The largest ones will arrive at 45.9% and 66.0%. A moderate increase in discharge will be 28.9% and 41.5% estimated by the HBV model coupled with RegCM3. The seasonal discharge in the two future periods shows the same variation as the base period. The discharge will quickly increase in May in the future two periods. The discharge peak will occur in July in the middle of this century and August in the end of this century. It can be concluded that climate wanning and the induced glacier shrinkage will increase the runoff amount, and will finally result in the allocation of the water resources in the catchment.关键词
径流预估/HBV模型/气候变暖/冰川退缩/台兰河流域Key words
discharge estimation/ HBV model/ climate warming/ glacier shrinkage/ Tailan River basin引用本文复制引用
孙美平,姚晓军,李忠勤,李晶..21世纪天山南坡台兰河流域径流变化情景预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(5):342-349,8.基金项目
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-GJ04) （KZCX2-YW-GJ04）
国家重大科学研究计划项目(2010CB951401) （2010CB951401）
西北师范大学青年教师科研能力提升计划项目(NWNU-LKQN-10-35) （NWNU-LKQN-10-35）
