气候变化研究进展2012，Vol.8Issue(5)：350-356,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2012.05.006
天山托木尔峰南坡科其喀尔冰川流域径流模拟
Evaluation of Runoff from Koxkar Glacier Basin,Tianshan Mountains, China
摘要
Abstract
Glacier and snowmelt water are precious resource for inland district in Northwest China.This paper applied the snowmelt runoff model (SRM) in the Koxkar glacier basin, southwestern Tianshan Mountains in China. Based on the field observation and MODIS snow cover product over the research basin, the parameters of the SRM were determined. The degrcc-day factor is very sensitive and important in the model, therefore this parameter was calibrated monthly by the runoff data in 2007 and 2008. For 2005 and 2006, the model result is acceptable compared with SRM model results applied in 80 catchments for 25 countries. Hence the model is suitable for the glacier cover basin. The response sensitivity of basin runoff to climate change has been done. Temperature is the control factor. Under the climate background of 1 ℃, 2 ℃ and 4 ℃ temperature rising, the runoff of Mar. May increases by 48%, 155% and 224% respectively, and the runoff of May -Oct. increases by 30%, 77% and 104%. The runoff process of the basin also changes under the increasing temperature of 4 ℃ and precipitation of 20%, the peak time of snowmelt runoff shifts from middle May to late April, and the peak of snowmelt runoff increases from 6 m3/s to 17 m3/s, and the peak of glacier runoff increases from 14 m3/s to 28 m3/s.关键词
天山/度日因子/融雪径流模型(SRM)/科其喀尔冰川/气候变化Key words
Tianshan Mountains/ degree-day factor/ snowmelt runoff model (SRM)/ Keqicar Glacier/ climate change引用本文复制引用
李晶,刘时银,韩海东,张勇,王建,魏俊锋..天山托木尔峰南坡科其喀尔冰川流域径流模拟[J].气候变化研究进展,2012,8(5):350-356,7.基金项目
科技部国际合作项目(2010DFA92720-23) （2010DFA92720-23）
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目(KZCX2-YW-GJ04) （KZCX2-YW-GJ04）
中国科学院寒区旱区环境与工程研究所人才成长基金项目"冰川流域冷季风吹雪过程及其对积雪分布的影响" （）
