气象科学2012，Vol.32Issue(5)：492-499,8.DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0106
2009年夏季西太平洋台风路径和强度的多模式集成预报
Multimodel ensemble forecasts of the TC tracks and intensity over the western Pacific during the summer of 2009
摘要
Abstract
Based on the ensemble forecasts of China Meteorological Administration, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) and UK Met Office in the TIGGE(THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) datasets during the period from 1 May until 31 August 2009, 24 - 72 h multimodel ensemble forecasts of the typhoon track and intensity ( central pressure) for the forecast period from 1 to 31 August 2009 have been conducted by using the weighted bias-removed ensemble mean (WEM), the multimodel ensemble mean (EMN), and the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM). Typhoon "Goni" (No. 0907)and "Marokot" (No.0908) are chosen for case study. The results show that forecast skills of these four models of different operational forecast centers are quite different for 24 -72 h forecast. The WEM and BREM reduce the forecast errors considerably. Both methods show an improvement of the forecast skill over the best single model forecast and EMN. The WEM shows the best forecast skills in terms of the 24 - 72 h forecasts of the typhoon track and intensity over the western Pacific.关键词
TIGGE/台风路径/中心气压:多模式集成Key words
TIGGE/ Track of typhoon/ Central pressure/ Multimodel ensemble分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
周文友,智协飞..2009年夏季西太平洋台风路径和强度的多模式集成预报[J].气象科学,2012,32(5):492-499,8.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY200906009) （气象）
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(POPD) （POPD）
