气象科学2012，Vol.32Issue(5)：500-507,8.DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0059
SDSM统计降尺度方法对江淮地区地面气温模拟能力评估及其未来情景预估
Projection and evaluation of the surface temperature over Yangtze-Huaihe River valleys based on SDSM downscaling method
摘要
Abstract
SDSM statistical downscaling method was used to project and evaluate the surface temperature over Yangtze-Huaihe River Valleys. The results indicate that the SDSM model was reliable and the surface temperature at 5 representative stations would be increased by about 1.5℃ in 2050s under IPCC SRES A2. By the end of 21st century the warming would be around 4 t. This conclusion is consistent with the dynamical downscaling method ( LMDZ). But the warming amplitude is larger than that by using SDSM method.关键词
地面气温/SDSM/降尺度方法/模拟评估/情景预估Key words
Surface temperature/ SDSM/ Downscaling method/ Simulation evaluation/ Scenarios projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘敏,王冀,刘文军..SDSM统计降尺度方法对江淮地区地面气温模拟能力评估及其未来情景预估[J].气象科学,2012,32(5):500-507,8.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAC51B05) （2009BAC51B05）
国家重点基础研究发展规划项目(2010CB428506) （2010CB428506）
