气象科学2012，Vol.32Issue(5)：508-514,7.DOI:10.3969/2012jms.0065
基于集合预报产品的降尺度降水预报试验
Precipitation forecasting experiments based on the products of ensemble forecast by using downscaling method
摘要
Abstract
By using the downscaling forecast method of precipitation anomaly percentage, NECP/ NCAR data and the observed precipitation data in China, a forecast model of the precipitation anomaly percentage was set up. Then based on monthly dynamical extended range ensemble forecast products of T106L19 model, forecast experiments for three years from 2007 to 2009 and effects test were completed. The results show that the forecast skill of precipitation anomaly percentage by downscaling method based on the ensemble forecast products is higher than the skill by T106 model. The forecast skill of monthly geopotential height field at 500 hPa would directly influence the forecast skill of precipitation anomaly percentage. The better the forecast skill of mean circulation is, the better the forecast skill of precipitation anomaly percentage is. No matter how many the number of the ensemble members may be, the forecast results of ensemble forecast are obviously better than that of control forecast. As the number of the ensemble members increases, the forecast skill takes its trend of rising. The precipitation has significant seasonal and regional features in China. The forecast skill by downscaling method of precipitation anomaly percentage in Jianghuai region is the highest compared to all the regions, and the South China region followed.关键词
降尺度预报/降水距平百分率/动力延伸预报/集合预报Key words
Downscaling forecast/ Precipitation anomaly percentage/ Dynamical extended range forecast/ Ensemble forecast分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
黄刚,张立凤,王秋良,关吉平..基于集合预报产品的降尺度降水预报试验[J].气象科学,2012,32(5):508-514,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(40975031) （40975031）
