水科学进展2012，Vol.23Issue(5)：599-608,10.
基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析
Driving forces analysis and estimation of agriculture drought in river basins using regional climate model
摘要
Abstract
Taking the Mekong River basin as the study area, this paper analyzed and estimated the changes of agricultural drought on a monthly scale in terms of the typical index of soil water content in the root layer. The regional climate model ( RegCM3 ) under the A1B scenario is used in the simulation of soil water content and other surface variables. Based on the theory of surface energy balance, it systematically analyzed the relationship and variation between the main factors of agricultural drought ( such as precipitation, evaporation, surface temperature and soil water content of root layer) and atmosphere circulation, surface energy fluxes (such as sensible flux, latent heat flux, surface net flux) simulated by RegCM3. Through land surface water and energy fluxes balance, this paper identified preliminarily the occurrence mechanism of agriculture drought in the Mekong River basin. The estimation indicated that the surface temperature would increase obviously, but the soil moisture could decrease remarkably in late spring (June) and autumn (October). During the latter two periods, the study area is likely to experience a reduction in precipitation and an intensification of evapotranspiration, which could lead to the occurrence of agricultural drought in the study area especially in the non-irrigated agricultural regions.关键词
区域气候模式RegCM3/动力降尺度/地表能量平衡/农业干旱/湄公河流域Key words
regional climate model RegCM3 / dynamical downscaling/ surface energy balance/ agriculture drought/ Mekong River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴迪,裴源生,赵勇,严登华..基于区域气候模式的流域农业干旱成因分析[J].水科学进展,2012,23(5):599-608,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973)资助项目(2010CB951102) （973）
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体项目(51021066) （51021066）
