中国人口·资源与环境2012，Vol.22Issue(11)：13-18,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.11.003
气候变化的不确定性及其经济影响与政策含义
Climate Change Uncertainties, the Economic Impact and Policy Implications
摘要
Abstract
There are numerous uncertainties in climate change, thus uncertainty becomes a difficult but vital topic in the economics of climate change. The traditional cost-benefit analysis assumes thai the climate sensitivity follows normal distribution, and set their utility function and damage function accordingly. Stem once criticized these methods, and pointed out that the climate problem was not suitable for the marginal analysis. Shortly after the Stem Review, Martin Weitzman with other economists begins studying the deep structural uncertainties of climate change, Weitzman points out the climate sensitivity should follow fat-tailed distribution, which not only has solid bases from the climate science research, but also be widely accepted by many economists. The traditional cost-benefit analysis, which based on normal distribution, underestimates the climate sensitivity, and the probability and the extent of damages of possible future climate catastrophes, and thus incorrectly set their utility function and damage function. Furthermore, Weitzman proposes and proves the Dismal Theorem based on the fat-tail assumption, which provides a theoretical ground for the formation of public climate policies. He claims that the current mitigation investment plays as an insurance to avoid the future climate catastrophe; the ntitigation decision is based on the precautionary principle. While the source of the precautionary principle comes from the fear factor and (or) the ambiguity aversion of climate catastrophe which has a low probability but big impact. Empirical studies discover that once the model uses the fat-tail distribution and the according damage function, the potential damage brought by the future possible climate catastrophe is substantially higher than the results of tradition models. Based on the above reasons, Weitzman criticizes the wait-and-see and "climate policy ramp" strategies claimed by Nordhaus et al. , and indirectly supports the viewpoint of the Stern Review that we should take strong actions to mitigate.关键词
气候变化/不确定性/厚尾分布/预防原则/模糊厌恶Key words
climate change/ uncertainty/ fat-tailed distribution/ precautionary principle/ ambiguity aversion分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘昌义,潘家华..气候变化的不确定性及其经济影响与政策含义[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):13-18,6.基金项目
"十二五"国家科技支撑计划课题"IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响"(编号:2012BAC20B05). （编号:2012BAC20B05）
