中国人口·资源与环境2012，Vol.22Issue(11)：26-31,6.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.11.005
基于CGE模型的环境灾害经济影响评估——以湖南雪灾为例
Assessing the Economic Impact of Environmental Disaster: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis
摘要
Abstract
Environmental disaster not only results in direct loss, but also interrupts industrial chain and has a significant impact on regional economy. Taking the 2008 Chinese Ice Storm as an example, this paper assesses the influence of traffic disruption on economic system of Hunan Province. To reflect disaster's shock, the CGE model is refined in the following way: national model is downscaled into regional model according to regional attribute of disaster. And special macro closure on capital market is set in emergency period of disaster which is not same as usual situation. New variables or parameters are also added to build a bridge between model and reduced traffic flow data. Neoclassic macro closure is set on labor market. The conclusions are: ( 1 ) for catastrophe, business interruption loss is often larger than direct loss. (2) Economic loss Hunan Province caused by destroyed traffic amounted to RMB 5. 04 billion, accounting for 3% of regional GDP in previous two months. ( 3 ) It is noteworthy that the loss under the simultaneous disruption scenario of all sectors is not exactly equal to the sum of the losses when each sector is separately disrupted because of the interactive effect among sectors.关键词
间接经济损失/风险管理/CGEKey words
indirect economic loss/ risk management/ CGE分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
解伟,李宁,胡爱军,高颖,吉中会..基于CGE模型的环境灾害经济影响评估——以湖南雪灾为例[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):26-31,6.基金项目
国家重大科学研究计划项目"全球变化与环境风险演变过程与综合评估模型"(编号:2012CB955402) （编号:2012CB955402）
国家自然科学基金面上项目"基于I-O理论的灾害间接经济损失评估模型"(编号:41171401) （编号:41171401）
地表过程与资源生态国家重点实验室室内项目"自然灾害导致基础设施破坏的经济影响评估模型"(编号:2012-TDZY-022). （编号:2012-TDZY-022）
