中国人口·资源与环境2012，Vol.22Issue(11)：32-39,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1002-2104.2012.11.006
安徽省洪涝致灾危险性时空格局预估
Projecting Spatio-temporal Patterns of Flood Hazard over Anhui Province
摘要
Abstract
Prediction of hazard changes in climate extremes is of important significance for assessing the potential impacts of climate change on human society and natural systems. Using simulations of ' Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies (PRECIS) ' , authors selected five indicators (annual rainstorm days, annual maximum 3-day precipitation, elevation, gradient and distance to river-lake) to project the spatial patterns of flood hazard over Anhui Province at county scale for the present ( 1981 - 2010) and future (2011 -2100) under SRES B2 scenario. The results showed that compared with the present period, the mean annual rainstorm days and 3-day maximum precipitation over Anhui Province in the future would decrease in the north and increase in the south, while the probability of extreme precipitations would significantly increase. The flood hazard grade increased gradually from north to south in the four study periods. Changes of flood hazard patterns over Anhui Province in the future would mainly occur in the near-term (2011 -2040) and mid-term (2041 -2070) , and the number of counties in grade five of flood hazard would be 16 and the area percentage would be 29. 75% in the mid-term, 1 and 1. 24 times more than present period respectively. The results can provide scientific basis for flood risk management under climate change in this area.关键词
PRECIS/洪涝致灾危险性/时空格局/SRES B2情景/安徽省Key words
PRECIS/ flood hazard/ spatio-temporal pattern/ SRES B2 scenario/ Anhui Province分类
资源环境引用本文复制引用
贺山峰,葛全胜,吴绍洪,戴尔阜,吴文祥..安徽省洪涝致灾危险性时空格局预估[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2012,22(11):32-39,8.基金项目
国家重大科学研究计划项目(973项目)"全球变化与环境风险关系及其适应性范式研究"(编号:2012CB955403) （973项目）
国家自然科学基金项目"气候变化背景下洪涝灾害风险管理:以淮河流域为例"(编号:71203057) （编号:71203057）
教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"气候变化背景下洪涝灾害风险管理研究:以淮河流域为例"(编号:11YJCZH056) （编号:11YJCZH056）
教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"洪灾的社会脆弱性评估及减灾管理模式研究:以淮河流域为例"(编号:10YJAZH091) （编号:10YJAZH091）
中国科学院知识创新工程重要方向项目"中国重大自然灾害区域风险评估与灾后重建规划方法论研究"(编号:KZCX2-YW-Q03-01). （编号:KZCX2-YW-Q03-01）
