中国铁道科学2012，Vol.33Issue(5)：82-90,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1001-4632.2012.05.13
铁道供电系统信息流延时的拉丁超立方抽样蒙特卡洛模拟
Latin Hypercube Sampling Monte Carlo Simulation for the Information Flow Time-Delay of Railway Power Supply System
摘要
Abstract
Primary-backup communication preprocessing queue model, parallel server real-time queue model and server polling queue model are put forward for solving time-delay problem of information flow processing in railway power supply system. Latin hypercube sampling and Monte Carlo simulation are used to study the service process of information flow, and the relationships among the probability distribution of queuing parameters, confidence interval and simulation times are obtained by means of statistical method. Taking 2 M optical fiber communication for example, 1 024 and 1 500 kB ? S-1 is respectively adopted for the average arrival rate and average service rate to carry through Monte Carlo simulation. Results show that the time-delay for packet byte processing service can be controlled at about 2~3 ms, and it is verified that using Latin hypercube sampling instead of random sampling can reduce the number of Monte Carlo simulation. The simulation results of the average waiting time for real-time processing queue of parallel server and single server are compared. It is clear that, under the same conditions, the probability is 82. 95% for single server when the average waiting time of real-time processing queue exceeds 10 ms, and the probability is 56. 08% when the average waiting time exceeds 13 ms, both are greater than that of parallel server. Accordingly, parallel server configuration mode can reduce the average waiting time delay of information flow processing in real-time in railway power supply system.关键词
电气化铁道/供电系统/信息流/延时/拉丁超立方抽样/蒙特卡洛模拟/概率分布Key words
Electrified railway/ Power supply system/ Information flow/ Time-delay/ Latin hypercube sampling/ Monte Carlo simulation/ Probability distribution分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
屈志坚,刘明光,刘靖,曹洪睿,杨罡,刘铁..铁道供电系统信息流延时的拉丁超立方抽样蒙特卡洛模拟[J].中国铁道科学,2012,33(5):82-90,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51267005) （51267005）
江西省教育厅青年科学基金资助项目(GJJ10138,GJJ11116) （GJJ10138,GJJ11116）
