安徽农业科学2012，Vol.40Issue(33)：16286-16288,16317,4.
天水地区粮食生产对气候变化的响应
Impact of Climate Change on Crop Yields in TianShui
摘要
Abstract
Collecting agriculture production data, precipitation data and everyday air temperature during 1978 -2010 in 7 area in Tianshui City, resolved grain yield into climate yield and economic yield by using Cobb-Douglas production function, the interannual variation of grain yield, climatic index, accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃ and precipitation in grow up age were analyzed by mathematical statistics method. The results showed that: In 33 years, the grain yield have a trend of steady rise; The climatic variation have a trend of rise in temperature and reduce in precipitation, the accumulated temperature of ≥ 10 ℃ and the precipitation have a very clear rise and reduce turning point in 1993; Climatic warming is beneficial to agriculture production, precipitation reducing is harmful to agriculture production; In 33 years climatic impact have a rise trend in total and have a clear interannual difference, the accumulated temperature and precipitation have a positive effect to grain yield before 1993, the accumulated temperature rising and precipitation reducing have a negative effect to grain yield from 1994 to 2000, after 2000 they have a positive effect to grain yield. The accumulated temperature of & 10 ℃ and precipitation in grow up age both influence the grain yield but the accumulated temperature is more sensitive.关键词
气候变化/粮食产量/响应/天水Key words
Climatic variation/ Grain yield/ Response/ Tianshui分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
胡利平,贾效忠,杭波,汪鸿滨,张浩良..天水地区粮食生产对气候变化的响应[J].安徽农业科学,2012,40(33):16286-16288,16317,4.基金项目
甘肃省气象局气象科研项目(2012-13). （2012-13）
