干旱地区农业研究2012，Vol.30Issue(6)：247-253,7.
基于气象因子驱动的阴山地区马铃薯产量预测模型
Study on the forecasting model of potato yield based on drive of climate factors in Yinshan area
摘要
Abstract
To grasp the potato yield and to improve the meteorological service ability in the middle and late period of potato growth and to guide potato production, with the potato production of dry farming region as the research object, the key climate factors influencing potato yield were estimated and the forecasting model of potato yield was built with the correlation and regression method based the meteorological data of 16 weather stations and the related data of potato development in 1980—2007. The results showed that: (1) The precipitation was the key factor to restrict potato production, and the temperature secondly. The effect of high temperature stress of Qianshan area was greater than that of Houshan area, while the effect of inadequate precipitation was on the contrary. Little precipitation and high temperature were the main limiting factors. (2) The meteorological yield prediction model was established by using stepwise regression method for four periods of time, including seedling to tuber formation, seedling to starch accumulation, tuber formation to starch accumulation and the whole growing season, reached extremely significant level, with over 75 % fitting rate, 11.1% yield estimation average error and 0.34% ~ 27.9% amplitude error, 85% estimation accuracy beyond 80% , and the estimation result was better than each banner county area. (3) The tuber formation was the most sensitive period to water and temperature; Among different time models,better. The estimation results of growth season and seedling to tuber formation stage were better. The model can be used on potato yield estimation business.关键词
气象因子/马铃薯/产量预测模型/阴山地区Key words
potato yield/ forecasting model/ climate factors/ Yinshan area分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
侯琼,苗百岭,张晓雯..基于气象因子驱动的阴山地区马铃薯产量预测模型[J].干旱地区农业研究,2012,30(6):247-253,7.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划(2007BAD49B06) （2007BAD49B06）
