海洋预报2012，Vol.29Issue(6)：30-36,7.
南海海浪业务化数值预报系统检验
The verification of operational surface wave forecast system in the South China Sea
摘要
Abstract
In order to estimate the Operational Surface Wave Forecast System of South China Sea Marine Fore-cast Center, SOA, by using the observational data during March-November in 2010 and 2011 in the South Chi-na Sea, the 24 h ,48 h, 72 h forecast result from the System is verified. The statistical results show that the predic-tion error of significant wave height and mean period is 24 h<48 h< 72h, and the average absolute error of signif-icant wave height forecasted in 24h, 48h, 72h is less than 0.5m. The average absolute error in the average period of 24h, 48h , 72 h is less than 0.8s. Meanwhile, the forecast error is significantly smaller in October and November than that in other months. Regression analysis revealed that the forecast value and the observed value exists in highly linear correlation relationship, and with the prediction time growth, the correlation is gradually decreasing, and overall the forecast values are larger than observed value. In conclusion, the system which forecast error is ac-ceptable and meets the basic requirements of operational forecasting. However, there are still larger gaps between this system and other similar system, such as ECMWF .关键词
MM5模式/WWⅢ模式/业务化数值预报系统/统计检验/检验参数Key words
MM5 Model/ WaveWatch3 Model/ Operational Forecast System/Statistical Verification/ Verification Parameters分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
周水华,俞胜宾,梁昌霞,冯伟忠,吴迪生..南海海浪业务化数值预报系统检验[J].海洋预报,2012,29(6):30-36,7.基金项目
国家海洋公益性行业科研专项(200905015-03) （200905015-03）
