南京大学学报：自然科学版2012，Vol.48Issue(6)：746-752,7.
地下水流概念模型的不确定性分析
Uncertainty analysis of groundwater flow conceptual model
摘要
Abstract
Groundwater numerical simulation is influenced by many factors. The simulations are always deviate from observations. Therefore,it is necessary to analysis the influences of these factors on groundwater simulations. Recently,plenty of researches have been made for estimating model parameter uncertainty,and so,a series of meth- odologies have been proposed or developed for uncertainty analysis. Nevertheless, a little of attention is paid for assessing conceptual model uncertainty. Therefore, for the purpose of analyzing conceptual model uncertainty, a synthetical groundwater flow model is constructed in this paper. Three alternative conceptual models are constructed by considering incompleted model structures. Based on Monte Carlo simulation, these three models are calibrated for model parameters. The predictive probability distributions of groundwater budget terms for the three models are obtained from the results of Monte Carlo simulations. The results show that conceptual model is essential for groundwater numerical simulation. The more reliable the structure of conceptual model is, the more reliable the predictive distribution of model output is. Moreover,the conceptual model uncertainty cannot be compensated by parameter uncertainty. As a result,{or the real groundwater simulation, more resources and attentions should be paid [or the data collections on the structure of groundwater media.关键词
地下水模拟/概念模型/小确定性/蒙特卡洛模拟Key words
groundwater simulation/conceptual model/uncertainty/Monte Carlo simulation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
曾献奎,王栋,吴吉春..地下水流概念模型的不确定性分析[J].南京大学学报：自然科学版,2012,48(6):746-752,7.基金项目
基金项目：国家自然科学基金（41172207,41030746.4072501o,41071018,40730635）,环保公益性行业专项（201009011）,环保公益性行业专项 （）
