气象2012，Vol.38Issue(12)：1572-1578,7.
基于海温和环流特征量的江苏省小麦适播期预测
Prediction of Optimum Sowing Date of Winter Wheat in Jiangsu Province Basedon Sea Surface Temperature and Atmospheric Circulation Characteristics
摘要
Abstract
Based on the analysis of temperature data from 60 meteorological stations in Jiangsu Province during the period 1961-2010 by using the Mann-Kendall method, it was found out that both daily mean temperature and effective accumulative temperature during the growing period of winter wheat prior to winter have significant increasing trends in parallel with global warming. The statistical analysis on the ag- ro-meteorological records in different regions has shown that the sowing date of winter wheat is significant- ly correlated with the total and effective accumulative temperatures prior to the winter. The correlation be- tween sowing date and effective accumulative temperature has passed the test at the 0. 001 significance lev- el. According to coupling between the atmosphere and oceans and the fact that the atmospheric circulation characteristics (ACC) of 500 hPa can indicate the weather patterns and control the weather conditions, a batch of effective sea surface temperature (SST) and ACC predictors of accumulative temperature prior to the winter were selected using the optimum correlation technique. These SST and ACC predictors are inde- pendent each other and have stable and significant correlations with the accumulative temperature. Then the models for predicting the accumulative temperature prior to the winter were developed. Calibrations and validations show that these developed models are able to predict the accumulative temperature prior to the winter with satisfied accuracy. They can be routinely operated to predict the accumulative temperature prior to the winter and to determine the optimum sowing date of winter wheat one to two months in ad- vance.关键词
农用天气预报/海温/环流特征量/最优化相关普查技术/适播期预测Key words
weather forecast for farming/sea surface temperature (SST)/atmospheric circulation charac-teristics (ACC)/optimization correlation technique/prediction for optimum sowing date分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
高苹,张佩,谢小萍,胡洛林,项瑛..基于海温和环流特征量的江苏省小麦适播期预测[J].气象,2012,38(12):1572-1578,7.基金项目
公益性行业（气象）科研专项（GYHY200906021）和江苏省气象局开放基金项目（K201005）共同资助 （）
