水利水电技术2012，Vol.43Issue(11)：4-8,13,6.
2011～2060年长江上游流域降水变化预估问题的探讨
Research on the precipitation of precipitation change with in Upper Yangtze River Basin during 2011～2060
摘要
Abstract
A comparing verification is made between the Projection Data Set of Climate Change in China( Version2. 0) made with the ensemble average of 12 global climate models given in the Fourth Assessment Report of IPCC( Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) and the observed daily precipitation data of the Upper Yangtze River Basin, and then, the result shows that the global climate model has a certain capacity for simulating the spatio-temporal change of the precipitation within the Upper Yangtze River Basin and can be applied to the study on the projection of the future climate change in the basin. On the basis of this, the projection of the spatio-temporal change of the precipitation in the basin during a period of 50 years is further studied with the precipitation data from the result of multi-model simulation made by the National Climate Center. The study result indicates that the precipitation in the Upper Yangtze Rive Basin shows an increasing trend during the overall period of 2011 -2060.关键词
气候模式/温室气体排放/排放情景/降水变化预估/长江上游流域Key words
climate models/greenhouse gas emission/emission scenario/projection of precipitation change/global climate model/the Upper Yangtze River Basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张俊,陈良华,李波,徐卫立..2011～2060年长江上游流域降水变化预估问题的探讨[J].水利水电技术,2012,43(11):4-8,13,6.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划(2009BAC56B04). （2009BAC56B04）
