生态学杂志2012，Vol.31Issue(11)：2884-2890,7.
气候变化和人类活动对黑河上中游径流量变化的贡献率
Contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the runoff in upper and middle reaches of Heihe River basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the 1960-2008 meteorological and hydrological data in the upper and middle reaches of Heihe River basin, and by the methods of linear regression, nonparametric Mann-Kendall test, accumulative anomaly, annual accumulation, and change rate of accumulation slope, this paper analyzed the variations and trends of the runoff and climate in this region, and calculated the contribution rates of climate change and human activity on the runoff. In the upper reaches of Heihe River basin, the annual runoff, precipitation, and evaporation presented an overall increasing trend, with a significant increase of the annual runoff and evaporation. In the midstream , the annual runoff and evaporation exhibited a decreasing trend while the annual precipitation was in adverse, but the trends were not obvious. The abrupt change year of the runoff in the upper and middle reaches was 1979 and 1984, respectively. According to the abrupt change year of runoff, the time series were divided into upstream (1960-1979 and 1980-2008) and midstream (1960-1984 and 1985-2008) , and the linear equations of the accumulated runoff, accumulative precipitation, and accumulative evaporation and the time series were obtained. In the upstream, climate change played dominant role, human activity had lesser effects, and their contribution rates to the increase of runoff were 59. 71% and 40. 29% , respectively. In the midstream , the effects of climate change on runoff were lesser, while human activity played dominant role, with their contribution rates to the decrease of runoff being 25. 23% and 74. 77% , respectively. This study could provide a guide for the future water resources development and uti-lization in Heihe Kiver basin.关键词
径流量/降水量/蒸发量/人类活动/贡献率/黑河流域Key words
runoff/ precipitation/ evaporation/ human activity/ contribution rate/ Heihe River basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
何旭强,张勃,孙力炜,靳生理,赵一飞,安美玲..气候变化和人类活动对黑河上中游径流量变化的贡献率[J].生态学杂志,2012,31(11):2884-2890,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(40961038)、生态经济学省级重点学科项目(5001-021)和西北师范大学知识与科技创新工程项目(NWNU-KJCXGC-03-66)资助. （40961038）
